Pictured above: Aerial footage of Travis Scott’s performance in Rio De Janeiro for his Circus Maximus tour, attended by over 115,000 (via Threads user @swagplace00)
Early into his 2024 Christmas livestream with Drake, internet personality Adin Ross proclaimed that “rap is dead.” Drake quickly dismissed his comment, replying “let’s not go there,” only to moments later state that “[rap] will never die” before discussing his upcoming collaboration with PartyNextDoor.
Still, the knee-jerk reaction from the hip-hop industry’s most globally celebrated artist speaks to the idea of a mainstream loss of interest in the genre. But is this actually the case?
The main metric we should examine is streaming (or digital sales). Although the genre’s streaming performance has recently fluctuated more year-to-year, a 10,000-foot view speaks to its rapid growth and dominance starting in the 2000s. As both the iPod and the internet lowered barriers for consumers to explore different artists, rap music became mainstream, evolving from the East Coast-West Coast roots that had defined it since the ‘90s. The top two albums of the 2000s (by daily streams) were Graduation by Kanye West (2007) and The Eminem Show (2002). Kanye’s 808s and Heartbreaks (2008) provided a watershed moment for the industry, creating a space for vulnerability and sadness in a genre previously known for anger, while simultaneously recognizing the new norm of production in the Roland TR-808 drum machine.
The trend solidified in the 2010s with the success of both established and new rappers. Nicki Minaj’s breakout Pink Friday debuted in 2010 and Drake released his critically acclaimed Thank Me Later, only to follow the next year with Take Care, which also rose to number one on the Billboard 200. Hip-hop music immersed itself in popular culture as Kendrick Lamar received the most Grammy nominations ever held by a rapper (11) for his 2015 album To Pimp a Butterfly and Leonardo Di Caprio capitalized on Bobby Shmurda and the #freeBobby movement to promote his film The Revenant. 2016 marked the arrival of the so-called “SoundCloud rappers,” namely Lil Uzi Vert, Lil Yachty, 21 Savage, and Kodak Black.
In 2017, Nielsen Music reported that eight of the ten most-listened-to artists during that year were rappers or R&B artists, and that rap music had even achieved a 25% increase in consumption from the previous year. In 2023, the Hip-hop/R&B genre collectively accounted for 27.3% of song streaming, dwarfing Rock (16.5%) and Pop (12.8%). Spotify similarly disclosed in 2024 that nearly a quarter of all global streams on the platform belonged to the hip-hop genre.
So what explains the recent bearishness? The genre appears to be in somewhat of a transition state, both in a changing of the guard and in terms of the culture surrounding the industry.
The once standard cast of the 2000s and 2010s have significantly slowed their releases and garnered less attention in their newer projects. Jay Z’s Holy Grail Magna Carta (2013) sold an impressive 528,000 copies in its first week as compared to his 2017 4:44, which sold only 174,000. Eminem’s project earlier this year, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce), sold 281,000 equivalent album units first week, as compared to the whopping 1,322,000 copies of his 2002 The Eminem Show. The one exception is, of course, Drake, who has continued to sell above 400,000 units on a nearly yearly basis.
In the period between 2016-2020, there seemed to be a healthy introduction of new talent. Lil Uzi released his beloved Luv is Rage 2 (2017) and Charlotte rapper DaBaby saw commercial success with “ROCKSTAR” and “Levitating,” his collaboration with pop artist Dua Lipa. Atlanta-based rapper Lil Baby received praise for “The Bigger Picture” following the death of George Floyd. The late Pop Smoke bookended 2020 with Meet the Woo 2 and Shoot for the Stars Aim for the Moon, popularizing the drill-style of rap.
In recent years, however, there seems to be a dearth of sustainable talent within the industry. Rap Caviar’s 2025 playlist features a growing collection of female artists like GloRilla, Ice Spice, and Sexyyy Red, who represent a growing share of the current scene. Yet these artists are only known for a few hits and have a profile shy of the public attention awarded to popular rappers/R&B artists in the 2000s and 2010s. The music industry is at least partially responsible for its role in prioritizing single streaming hits over cohesive projects. Individual songs are more easily popularized through short-form videos on Tik Tok and Instagram, and the seemingly infinite capacity of platforms like Spotify does not penalize a “throw shit at the wall” approach.
The diversification and global expansion of rap have also contributed to a lack of consensus in a “new guard.” Former Spotify employee Glenn McDonald created Every Noise at Once, a complex data index that snapshots Spotify listener history from 2008 to 2018. The project identified trap, emo trap, gangster trap, Latin hip-hop, and pop rap as the major sub-genres that emerged from this period. Rap music is also rapidly taking on a uniquely global dimension—look no further than Latin artist Bad Bunny, who was the most streamed artist on Spotify from 2020 to 2022, and remains within the top three.
Simultaneously, major cultural shifts seem to be underway in the rap community, making old-school listeners uncomfortable. Hip-hop’s shift away from the dangerous, often deadly rivalries of the 1980s and ‘90s has been well-documented, as Drake quipped in his 2015 single “Back to Back” how “trigger fingers turn to Twitter fingers”. Brooklyn rapper 6ix9ine sent shockwaves through the industry for his bold defense of snitching on 2 alleged members of the Nine Trey Gangsta Bloods while facing federal gun and racketeering charges in 2018. Snitching, once seen as the ultimate faux paus for a genre known for its distaste of law enforcement, has since transitioned into somewhat of a gray area. Sergio Kitchens (a.k.a. Gunna) faced controversy for his nebulous cooperation with authorities in 2022 to reach an Alfred plea for RICO charges related to the Atlanta-based gang YSL. Although his statements could not be used as testimony against other co-defendants, notably Young Thug, the information he revealed was still viewed in the ‘spirit of snitching.’ Yet, as of 2024, the artist has largely continued his commercial success with One of Wun, his latest release.
In a genre known for artist rivalries, one bright spot was the recent feud between Kendrick Lamar and Drake. This verbal confrontation ignited in Spring 2024 after Lamar’s verse on “Like That” brushed aside J. Cole’s previous lyric that insinuated he, Lamar, and Drake embodied the ‘Big Three’ of rap. The clash that followed consisted of eleven back-and-forth tracks which culminated in Lamar releasing “Not Like Us” on May 4th. Rap rivalries have historically epitomized the personal and energetic spirit of the genre, contributing to the industry’s success. Indeed, Kendrick’s beef with Drake propelled hip-hop back into public consciousness, leading him to sell 319,000 copies first week on his surprise release GNX, more than for his long-awaited album Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers in 2022.
So to answer Adin Ross, or your roommate currently obsessed with Morgan Wallen, no, rap is not dead. While the genre’s evolution may be hitting a somewhat awkward phase, it is still immensely popular and will likely remain so in the near future.
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